The driverless future is now a global operation rather than the sci-fi fantasy of just a few years ago, and Waymo is leading the way.
The announcement of its move to London, one of Europe's largest cities, is another sign of the ambitious company’s intent.
But what does this mean for drivers in the UK and beyond? Is the use of autonomous vehicles, known as AVs, going to change the way they drive forever? This article takes a closer look.
The new normal in San Francisco
To understand Waymo's significance, you have to look at where they’ve been successful. In cities like San Francisco, Waymo’s autonomous taxis, their white Jaguar I-PACE vehicles, have become part of the city scene. They find their way across the city's hills, cyclists, and traffic grids well, avoiding the accidents that several critics feared would happen.
It’s an experience that’s becoming the new normal. For residents and tourists, hailing a Waymo is now the same as a taxi or Uber used to be. The experience is almost the same: the car pulls up, you take the ride, then you confirm it all went smoothly via your app. The difference is, of course, that now the silent turn of the steering wheel has taken the place of your friendly cab driver, and that you’re now in the hands of an invisible algorithm.
You’re now truly on your own – at least in a physical sense – as you cruise to your destination with a specially curated playlist.
Data and safety
Data and safety are two reasons why Waymo believes they are ready to expand. They have logged millions of autonomous miles, and the company points out that its safety record during that period is highly impressive.
Waymo vehicles have been involved in a fraction of the incidents seen in equivalent human-driven miles. Machines don’t do stupid things like chatting on their phone or playing video or mobile casino games while driving, after all, but even the margin of error expected from an algorithm has been lower than expected. This impressive performance is why Waymo is thinking bigger.
Yet now, they are scaling rather than just texting. This means investing heavily in the infrastructure to support a 24/7 service, including special depots, charging stations, maintenance, and, of course, a network of remote human support specialists.
All of this work is essential to run a major transport service, be it in Phoenix, San Francisco, or wherever the next global hotspot for AVs might be.
A double-edged disruption
For a company like Waymo, the global market potential is enormous, but there are potentially big ripple effects.
On one hand, the technology promises people new possibilities. Organizations like the Royal National Institute of Blind People support the news. They see driverless cars as a dawn of safe travel for those who cannot drive themselves. The vehicles could bring a new world of personal freedom and mobility to blind people
On the other hand, Waymo’s arrival brings economic disruption. In San Francisco, where the likes of Uber and Lyft changed the face of professional driving over a decade ago, this auto fleet is the second wave of technological replacement.
Some industry leaders suggest self-driving will expand the overall market, but for human drivers, things are pretty worrying. Many believe they have less than a year left in a job that has supported them and their families for decades.
The job losses may also include more than just taxis. They could also include truck drivers and delivery workers over the coming years. Waymo’s expansion is part of the debate about the effect AI will have on general employment, which the world must have sooner rather than later.
Waymo’s obstacles
The technology may look ready for the world, but the world may not be ready for the technology. Waymo’s must overcome global regulations and public skepticism, rather than just focus on expanding.
The United Kingdom is a perfect example of this resistance. The UK government has already announced its wish to attract big tech, but its regulatory framework is years behind. Waymo’s UK announcement depends on regulated public trials, which the law demands, which could start as early as 2026. However, these trials may need safety drivers to begin with and, even if they are successful, then full legislation won't arrive for years.
Here, adapting to local traffic laws may be much more difficult than mapping software and sensors. In the US, jaywalking laws keep pedestrian behavior predictable. In many other countries, like the UK, streetwalkers have much more freedom of movement. Critics doubt that the technology can operate as well in an environment where a human might step out without warning.
Skeptics also argue that London, with its old-fashioned road systems and traffic flow, is a different kettle of fish to the grid-like streets of North America. The technology may have a much harder time figuring out the city’s nooks and crannies.
Then, there's the human element. There have already been a range of social reactions to them in the US, including pranksters flooding a dead-end street with dozens of Waymos for social media fun to partygoers climbing on the roof of a stalled vehicle.
Waymo will have to deal with this strange wave of publicity, but then all publicity is good publicity according to some people.
The global trajectory
Waymo’s global push means that the debate is now how fast driverless technology will arrive instead of if it will – the London announcement is just the latest stop in this process.
As Waymo continues to get more regulatory approvals, the driverless revolution will continue, changing how we live and work in the world’s major metropolises.
What global city do you think will be the next one to embrace a fully autonomous taxi service? Time will tell.
