Back in March, I declared that Android would eventually dominate the tablet war, and most of the media continues to disagree with me. International Data Corporation (IDC) just released their figures for tablet market share for the 1st quarter 2011, and there is no question that the iPad continues to dominate, but IDC is reporting that Android now has a 34% market share.

Looking back at the end of the 3rd quarter 2010, the iPad had a 93% market share and Android was non existent. The Samsung Galaxy Tab was the only mainstream Android tablet for the 4th quarter 2010, and it was able to capture 17% of the market share for that period. Lets not forget that the Tab was never really meant to go after the iPad. The XOOM was the first major Android tablet (featuring Honeycomb) released, but it was released 2/3's into the 1st quarter, and many analysts consider the XOOM a flop. The fact that Android was able to capture a 34% market share through the 1st quarter has to be concerning to Apple.

IDC made the following statement about Android:

“Mobile phone vendors, such as Samsung and Motorola, who have focused their distribution through the telco carriers, found moderate success with their media tablets, but sales were largely stymied by many consumers' unwillingness to sign up for the 3G/4G data plans that the carriers typically require along with these devices.”

This completely changed starting with the second quarter as many WiFi-only options became available. The second quarter figures will be very interesting. In my past article, I predicted Android will overtake (or be very close to) Apple by March of 2012. With 500,000 Android phone activations per day, it can only translate into more sales for Android tablets. There is no question that Apple is concerned because there are already rumors they might release an updated iPad before the year is out.

The other interesting news is that IDC reported that tablet shipments fell by 28%, which was “well below expectations.” This drop does not surprise me because I still think that tablets doen't make a lot of sense for most consumers until it can replace a laptop. Could there be to much media hype? IDC doesn't think so because they have raised their shipment forecast for 2011 by about 3 million units to 53.5 million.

It is going to be an interesting 2nd half of the year for tablet sales, especially Android.

Full press release:

Media Tablet Sales Lag Optimistic First Quarter Targets, But Forecast Remains Strong, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, Mass.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Worldwide media tablet shipments into sales channels fell by 28% on a sequential basis in the first calendar quarter of 2011 (1Q11) to 7.2 million units worldwide, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker. Looking forward, however, IDC raised its shipment forecast for 2011 to 53.5 million units from a previous projection of 50.4 million units.

For 1Q11, the seasonal trends typically found in more mature consumer electronics and computing categories had a notable impact on the burgeoning media tablet market, suggesting that demand for the category may not be quite as strong as recent media hype suggests. The eReader market (which IDC counts separately) experienced similar seasonality, undergoing a sequential decline in shipments to 3.3 million units as the post-holiday season proved to be challenging for that category. However, eReaders enjoyed 105% year-over-year growth as the devices continue to grow in overall popularity, particularly with the introduction of color devices, such as Barnes & Noble's Color Nook. (Note: Media tablets have been shipping less than a full year and year over year growth comparisons are not yet available.)

Apple's iPad and the recently introduced iPad 2 continue to dominate the media tablet market, as other vendors have had a more difficult time finding market acceptance for their products. But even Apple's shipments for the quarter were well below expectations. Some supply-chain hiccups on screens as well as the pre-release announcement of the iPad 2 several weeks before its actual availability combined to have a noticeable impact on the company's shipments for the quarter.

Mobile phone vendors, such as Samsung and Motorola, who have focused their distribution through the telco carriers, found moderate success with their media tablets, but sales were largely stymied by many consumers' unwillingness to sign up for the 3G/4G data plans that the carriers typically require along with these devices. As an operating system, Android-based devices grew to 34% of the total, a share increase of 8.2 points over the previous quarter.

For eBooks, Barnes & Noble's Color Nook helped the company to take the lead in the eReader market for the first time. Amazon's Kindle was second, but the lack of a color offering has clearly impacted the company's previous dominance in the eReader market. IDC forecasts the worldwide eReader market to ship 16.2 million units in 2011, a 24% increase over 2010.

“Like the PC market, Media Tablets had a bit of a challenging quarter in Q1, as concerns about general macroeconomic issues and the post-holiday letdown took a toll on demand,” said Bob O'Donnell, IDC Vice President, Clients and Displays. “We expect the rest of the year to be much stronger, but we believe vendors who continue to focus on the telco channel for distribution will face serious challenges.”

“Although media tablet sales were not as high as expected in 1Q11 due to slower consumer demand, overall economic conditions, and supply-chain constraints, we believe with the entrance of competitive new devices in second half of 2011, the market will sell close to 53 million units for the year and continue to grow long-term,” said Jennifer Song, IDC Research Analyst.

About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. For more than 47 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.

All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.

Contacts

IDC
Bob O'Donnell, 650-350-6482
bodonnell@idc.com
or
Jennifer Song, 650-350-6222
jsong@idc.com
or
Loren Loverde, 305-351-3115
lloverde@idc.com
or
Michael Shirer, 508-935-4200
press@idc.com