What will happen to Verizon’s Android lineup if they get the iPhone?

by Chris Moor
tagged Android, apple, AT&T, droid, droid 2, droid x, droid2, droidx, Google, HTC, motorola, Verizon, vzw

As some of you may know, Verizon is “supposedly” getting the iPhone next year. To back this up, it seems that Apple has just ordered a bunch of CDMA chips, which would allow the iPhone to work on Verizon’s network. For us Android fanatics, the iPhone coming to Verizon could mean one of two things.

The first scenario is that everyone with an Android phone on Verizon jumps ship to the iPhone, and it is the end of all Android phones on Verizon as we know it. This is not probable, however much Señor Jobs wants it to be.

The second scenario, however, is much more likely to happen. As most of us know, AT&T is not known for outstanding service, and I am willing to bet that if the iPhone came to Verizon, 75% of AT&T iPhone users would be willing to jump ship to a Verizon iPhone. The possibility that Android will suffer from a Verizon iPhone is unlikely, and here’s why:

Most of the people that will be getting the iPhone on Verizon will not be Android customers, they will be AT&T customers. I’d bet that at least 80% of the people getting the Verizon iPhone will either be AT&T customers or non-Android customers on Verizon. My reasoning for this is that most people with an Android phone are happy with their phone, and wouldn’t part with it if the opportunity arise. But for AT&T iPhone customers, it is different.

If they were given the opportunity to switch to Verizon, and keep their iPhone, then goodbye AT&T. And let’s face it, as great as Android is (and it is great) , there will always be people who don’t like it, for whatever reason they might have. If some of those people are on Verizon, then they probably don’t have a Droid. So if the iPhone arrives at Verizon, they might jump ship from their BlackBerry, Windows Mobile, Palm, or from their so-called “dumbphone”. But once you go Android, you never go back.

You’re also probably thinking “Verizon’s Android lineup won’t hurt a bit.” Quite the contrary, in fact.

Up until the iPhone lands on Verizon, the only competitor Android has had was itself. The question wasn’t “should I get the BlackBerry Storm 2, or the Droid Incredible?”. The question was “Should I get the Droid X or the Droid Incredible?”. Whatever way the consumer picked, it was chalked up as a win for Android. So, even though there are some pretty sweet Droid phones on Verizon, they didn’t need to compete with anyone. But when the iPhone comes to Verizon, they will.

The question will change from “Should I get the Droid X, the Droid 2 or the Droid Incredible?” to “Should I get the Droid X or the iPhone?”. Motorola, HTC, and Google understand this. Once the iPhone comes to Verizon, there will be an epic mobile Cold War, the likes of which we have never seen. Android phones on Verizon will have something to compete with, and compete they shall. Sure the iPhone competes with Android phones on AT&T, but the way AT&T cripples them doesn’t allow for the full, complete Android experience. I think we will start to see an even more rapid Android growth on Verizon and the phones will be even better than they are now. I personally can’t wait to see how it all plays out for both (Android & Apple) parties involved

» See more articles by Chris Moor

Categorized as Android Carriers, Android News, Android Phones

Comments

Stephen

I would think the iPhone is gonna do a bit more damage to Verizon’s Android sales than you’d think. But remember that at&t will have to compensate their massive drop in iPhone sales with Android sales. Plus all the other US networks that don’t sell iPhones and are happy to drive their Android handsets will support us happy Android campers, increase profits and bring us more advancements that will drive Android even further ahead of the iPhone.

Viva la Green Robot Army.
ari-free

We hear rumors of a Verizon iPhone every other month for the past several years. Sometimes you have to wonder if they are planted to pump the price of AAPL.
We do know that Verizon wants its own services such as v-cast, fios and even e-money (use your phone as a credit card). They can do that with Android’s flexibility and it would be remarkable if Apple let them do that.
LP

I am sorry but this is one of the worst posts I’ve ever seen. Every single point you made was based on your own speculation. You don’t have any thing to support your view. Why don’t you just yell:”Android FTW”?

“75% of AT&T iPhone users would be willing to jump ship to a Verizon iPhone.” Pure speculation. Just a random bet.

“I’d bet that at least 80% of the people getting the Verizon iPhone will either be AT&T customers or non-Android customers on Verizon. ” Again, just a random bet. Whether is 80% or 90%, it doesn’t matter. It’s random.

“most people with an Android phone are happy with their phone”. How do you know “most”? Even it’s most, they are happy doesn’t mean they won’t change for something else.

“But once you go Android, you never go back.” You sound like Android is perfect. No, it’s not. It’s great but it’s not perfect. Android is still catching up with iOS. And there is a survey coming out a few days ago, 30% of Android users would like to switch to iPhone. Do yourself a little research.

You spend most of the post trying to say Android will be fine. But in your last paragraph you turn everything over by saying there will be a war between Android and Apple. What is your point anyway??

Now put your post aside, I think Android should solve its own problem first. One of the biggest ones is the competition within itself. Every manufacture is trying to increase their own share. They change Android so dramatically that the user experience is very very inconsistent. You don’t feel like you are using the same OS with HTC, Motorola and Samsung. I know Android 3 is trying to solve this, but I doubt it will get too much better. That’s because the nature of competition. Using the same OS doesn’t mean they are friends. They are competitors. They will always want to make their own mark on the phone. The UI is different. The button order is different. The widgets and apps are not available on all phones. That’s the problem. That’s the inconsistency that will drive customer away. So my suggestion to Android: don’t just look at Apple, watch out the problem in yourself.
ari-free

Apple has its own problems otherwise it would be #1 and not #3
http://cameradojo.com Kerry Garrison

Even if some survey says 30% of Android users would want an iPhone, 70% of the rest is “most android users” so the point is still valid. That said, I tried to google switch from android to android and basically find nothing, but switching from iphone to android pulls up tons of posts.

As for 75% jumping ship, who knows, maybe over time but 75% of ATT users would not fork out huge early termination fees and considering how many people JUST got the iPhone4, that’s two years before any of them will even consider a switch to Verizon since you have the ATT ETF PLUS the cost of a new Verizon-hardware iPhone since they will not be compatible.
LP

@ari-free

Whether Apple has its own problems or not has nothing to do with this post or my comment. Your answer is the same as Jobs reply to antennagate:”Other smartphone has death grip too.”.

@Kerry

I am not arguing whether 75% is reasonable or not. I am just saying it’s a RANDOM bet. It’s meaningless. This post is not news, it’s not analysis. It’s just an arrogant Android fan yelling: “Android FTW”.
ari-free

no no…of course android has to deal with its problems. But some problems are bigger than others and you have to evaluate one vs the other.
Apple’s inflexibility is worse than android’s inconsistency. People can deal with inconsistency. Nothing on the internet is consistent. In fact, consistency leads to boredom and apathy after a while.
http://www.Twitter.com/QDOG8 QDOG8

Verizon will still advertise “DROID DOES” like crazy because that’s Verizon’s marketing. In all of the AT&T commercials, they have never advertised the iPhone. iPhone advertising was all Apple, not AT&T. and I’m pretty sure it’ll stay the same if it goes to Verizon.
The_Omega_Man

Verizon wants subscriptions and that is all that Verizon wants here. The phones themselves are commodities, with very little relative profit margins. iPhone, Blackberry, Windows Phone 7, HTC, Samsung, LG or Moto Android does not really matter to Verizon as long as they bring in new subscribers. The iPhone will bring in some current at&t disgruntled subscribers, but I do not agree with the poll numbers on defectors that I read on blogs. I know way too many iPhoners that are actually happy with at&t. I am fairly positive that many of the previous iPhone rumors were put out, in the Apple fan blogs, to stem the tide of any viable competition to Apple, in this smart phone playground. However, I am certain that Apple is currently testing iPhone 4g models on the Verizon network, (I have actually seen and held one of the test iPhones) which means that this is no longer a rumor in my eyes.

As to how much this will affect Android sales, is relative. With better and better android choices and ridiculous marketing dollars being spent on Android platforms, I would expect that Apple will be the one worried about potential VZW sales and not the Android and Windows Phone 7 smart phone manufactures.
Jiminy Licket

The iPhone will destroy android. This article is the stupidest thing I read, chock full of opinions and speculations.
The_Omega_Man

@Jimmy Licket – You mean much like your comment, full of opinion and speculation? ;p

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