International Data Corporation (IDC) just upped their overall tablet sales forecast for 2012 and moving forward, but sees Android with no gains, and in fact showing a small decline into 2016. Originally IDC estimated that overall tablets would hit 107.4 million units worldwide in 2012, but now that has been increased to 117.1 million. They also revised their 2012 forecast to 165.9 million from 142.8 million. In 2016, shipments could hit 261.4 million.
With all this growth how can Android not show some success? Well in terms of actual units, Android will gain, but when it comes to market share things don’t look good. For 2012, IDC expects Android to have a 35.3% market share, which is down from 38.9% in 2011. By 2016, IDC is expecting a more dismal 30.5%. On the flip side, Apple will drop a little as well. They will go from 60% this year to 58% in 2016. The rest of the market share will be made up from Microsoft’s Windows RT and Windows 8 tablets. For 2012, they will hit 4% and eventually grow to 11% by 2016. It will be interesting to see if their numbers hold because I’m expecting bigger things from Microsoft when it comes to tablets.